The tightening of U.S. sanctions and the rise of internal pressure has dislocated the Castroist dictatorial elite.
Cuba in the 1950s:
“Down with Batista!” “Down with the dictatorship!” “Long live free Cuba!” “Batista murderer!”
Cuba in 2025:
“Down with the dictatorship!” “Down with communism!” “Down with Fidel!” “Down with Raúl!” “Long live free Cuba!” “Díaz-Canel motherf***er!” “Patria y Vida!” “Until when!” “Freedom!” “Change the system!” “Down with the revolution!” “They’re starving us!” “We want light and food, not slogans!” “Why was I born in a prison?”
Seventy years ago, Batista’s censorship prevented the press from denouncing the dictatorship, so the people did it themselves. I witnessed it. Today the same thing is happening, but with graffiti that is far more numerous and eloquent, in the face of a much more overwhelming repressive machinery.
This happens alongside protests over blackouts, lack of food, gas, water, bread, medicine—everything! Under Batista that didn’t happen. There was capitalism, and the economy prospered.
Today, criticism of the dictatorship is also growing on social media, along with the fight of opposition members, independent journalists, and now, additionally, university students and the country’s Catholic bishops. Because the forced pretense of loyalty by university students—imposed by Fidel Castro when he declared that “the university is for revolutionaries”—is over. Can anyone imagine a 1950s slogan saying “The university is for Batista supporters”?
Since then, students pretended to be loyal to the “revolution” when they weren’t. Now they’ve broken away from the snitches imposed in the leadership of the FEU and demanded from ETECSA (read: the dictatorship) their right—and the right of all Cubans—to access the internet in national currency, at affordable prices, and without restrictions. They’ve even expressed their “rejection of the State Security organs in the face of respectful and dialectical dissent,” as stated by students from the Instituto Superior de Arte (ISA).
In videos recorded during meetings with ETECSA officials, you can hear students say: “This country also belongs to those of us who don’t have dollars.” And: “How are you going to think like a country if you didn’t include the country?”—a rejection of the official line that the measure was “a national decision.”
It’s clear that protesting in Cuba gets results.
Meanwhile, the 13 bishops of the Catholic Church in the country (Conference of Catholic Bishops) made a historic political call for “the structural, social, economic, and political changes that Cuba needs.”
The bishops emphasized: “Things are not okay, we cannot go on like this, something must be done to save Cuba (…) Let’s not be afraid to embark on new paths!” In short, they are demanding the government dismantle the communist system, as in Cuba today, the word “structural” means restoring a market economy.
Moreover, after a protest over the lack of anything, trucks typically show up with food, gas, water, bread—or the electricity is turned back on. The message to the population is very clear: protesting gets results.
The internal popular pressure against Castroism has reached its highest historical magnitude, and to this is added the sharp increase in pressure from Washington under the Trump Administration, with Marco Rubio as Secretary of State. The memorandum signed a few days ago by President Trump repealed Joe Biden’s measures that eased pressure on the dictatorship in exchange for nothing. It expands and intensifies previous sanctions, now more directly targeting the center of dictatorial power: the military—because Castroism was born militarized.
GAESA’s games of mocking everyone with its subsidiaries, front companies, straw men, and legal tricks—from within U.S. territory—are over. These operations enriched the offshore bank accounts of generals, colonels, and their civilian associates.
The ban on American tourist travel to Cuba has been reinforced, and the pro-Castro maneuvers of “academic and cultural exchanges” have been suspended. There is also international pressure to stop governments from continuing to be complicit with the Castro regime’s slave-labor exploitation of doctors abroad.
As the director of Cuba Siglo XXI, Juan Antonio Blanco, has stated, this presidential memorandum is not just an executive order—it is the first time it involves the Departments of Justice, Commerce, Treasury, Homeland Security, and even the Pentagon.
And we can expect more pressure from Washington, because Cuba is the most valuable and useful ally-accomplice that China and Russia have in the Americas. The island is a base of Chinese, Russian, North Korean, and probably Iranian espionage against the United States.
I’m among those who believe that if the Trump government simply warned the Castroist high command that it would face “serious consequences” if it continues to threaten U.S. national security and violate human rights on the island, that alone would cause cracks in the “monolithic revolutionary unity” that Raúl Castro boasts of—and also within the Armed Forces.
Internal and external pressure to squeeze the sandwich
The increase in U.S. pressure coincides with growing internal pressure. Both reinforce each other. They are the two sides of the sandwich meant to squeeze the dictatorial high command in the middle.
And by the way, the silence of the UN about Castroist totalitarianism is more shameful than ever. The European Union—and Spain in particular—continues funding the dictatorship instead of confronting it. Latin America continues collaborating with the regime or simply looks the other way. Governments either share the Castroist regime’s ideological-political alignment or fear protests stirred up by the long arm of Cuban Intelligence and its “Friends of Cuba” agents. They also fear losing votes.
However, since Cuba today depends more than ever on the U.S. for finances, food, and economic survival, Washington’s pressure is what most erodes the regime’s foundations.
The collapse of communism in Europe came from fractures in the dictatorial high command, caused by reforms forced by massive internal political pressure stemming from perestroika. The reforms slipped out of the communist governments’ control, and there was no more military support from Moscow to crush them, as had happened in Hungary (1956) and Czechoslovakia (1968).
Specifically, two members of the Soviet Communist Party’s Politburo—Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin—put an end to European communism. The communist dictator who resisted the most, Nicolae Ceausescu, was executed. He died like Benito Mussolini, who tried to flee to Switzerland with his mistress but was captured and executed.
Cuba is not a European country, and its socio-economic and political situation is infinitely worse than what Eastern European countries faced. Any major change on the island must pass through the Armed Forces. And there are commanding officers convinced that “this can’t go on anymore.” They would not obey an order to massacre men, women, and teenagers in the streets. In short—though the regime denies it—Castroism is weaker today than ever before.
Without civil society, real change won’t be possible
Cubans must now prepare for the inevitable change that’s coming. To ensure that liberation is real—and not just a military deal to transition from orthodox Castroism to a Chinese-Vietnamese-Russian-style regime with fascist tones—civil society must participate.
An alternative power proposal to replace Castroism can be developed. One strong enough to negotiate the transition with a unified voice. To do that, civil society and organized opposition forces—supported by the diaspora—can form a tactical national unity alliance (without losing their identity as separate organizations), such as a National Salvation Front, a Broad National Unity Front, or whatever name they choose.
That way, the Cuban people, through a united and powerful force, could negotiate to create a provisional government plan that might initially include civilians and Castroist military figures not stained by blood or abuses against the Cuban people.
Conclusion: this unique moment—created by the tightening of U.S. sanctions and the rise of internal pressure—has dislocated the Castroist dictatorial elite. Now is the precise moment to squeeze the sandwich and launch the final offensive against communist totalitarianism.
And since it’s known that graffiti drives Raúl “The Cruel” crazy, there’s nothing better than repeating it:
“Down with the dictatorship!” “Down with Raúl!” “Freedom!” “Patria y Vida!” “Long live free Cuba!”
Roberto Alvarez Quiñones
July 6, 2025